Each year, LuxeConsult and Morgan Stanley produce a report of luxury watch sales data, including estimates of revenue and output from all the top Swiss (or Swiss-owned) brands. 2023’s numbers are in, and we don’t see too many huge surprises in there. But it is notable that estimated Rolex revenue for 2023 reached an all-time high ($11.4 billion) while Tudor’s declined by 4.4%. We’ll dig into that a bit here.
The full LuxeConsult/Morgan Stanley report is available at Revolution Watch, and it shows only a moderate increase in Rolex’s average price per watch–roughly in line with inflation. The estimated increase in output was also very slight–from 1.2 million watches in 2022 to 1.24 million in 2023–which aligns with persistent rumors that Rolex has already just about maxed out production capacity at its current facilities. Unsurprisingly, Rolex retains its dominant #1 position in the industry, while Tudor slipped from 15 to 17.
Rolex Demand is Very Real
Although some people enthusiastically repeat the mantra that Rolex scarcity is somehow “artificial,” the numbers in the Morgan Stanley reports imply otherwise. Obviously Rolex wasn’t as “hot” in 2023 as it was during the historic demand surge of 2020-2021, but they’re still selling extremely well, even though Rolex is making more units than ever.
The fact that Rolex has continued increasing its annual output despite declining demand backs up the notion that Rolex really is making as many watches as they can. Plus, Rolex has opened watchmaking schools around the world to address the watchmaker shortage, and new Rolex factories are being built as we speak.
Rolex Revenue 2023: Are the Morgan Stanley Numbers Accurate?
They’re probably in the right ballpark. For the most part their data jibes with the trends that industry insiders and watch enthusiasts see. The figures for Tudor and Rolex revenue in 2023 are credible. Overall it’s a high-quality report, but it is important to note that the numbers are still estimates; they’re not absolute gospel.
For instance, previous LuxeConsult/Morgan Stanley reports indicate that Rolex sold CHF 4.4 billion of watches in 2020 and over CHF 8 billion in 2021! Even if you ignore 2020 because of the lockdowns that happened that year, those 2021 numbers are still about 50% higher than 2019’s. I really don’t think Rolex’s revenue jumped by 50% in such a short timeframe, but anything’s possible.
Is Tudor in Trouble?
I think Tudor is doing just fine. It’s true that their estimated revenue for 2023 (~$644 million) declined by about 4.4% compared to 2022, but they can’t have a gangbusters year every year. In fact Tudor seems to take pride in their ability to scale to demand appropriately. Rolex previously revealed that some employees were “cross-trained” to make Tudors when the demand is high.
It’s also worth noting that the final assembly of all Tudors used to be done at Rolex HQ in Geneva. In 2021, a new Tudor/Kenissi plant opened and took some of that burden. And 2023 was the first year that all Tudors were assembled at the Tudor/Kenissi plant. Some would say a mere 4.4% drop in sales after excommunicating all watch assembly from big bro Rolex’s factory could be considered a success story. And, as Rolex and Tudor are both owned by the Hans Wilsdorf Foundation, increased Rolex revenue from 2023 more than made up for it anyway.
Plus, despite the fact that certain watches like the Black Bay Pro and Black Bay Chrono “Panda” aren’t as hot as they were when they were released, the market isn’t flooded with them either. Resale prices for Tudors are usually reasonable, but don’t expect crazy discounts. It seems like Tudor is matching supply with demand pretty well. As 2023 came to a close, the only really hard-to-get Tudor was the Pelagos FXD. The demand-supply gap for that lineup will presumably close over time, Tudor will eventually make a new hot release, and the cycle will continue.
More on Tudor:
Guide To The Best Tudor Watch Models
On The Wrist: Vintage Tudor Submariner 75090 Review
Long-Term Review: Two Years with the Tudor Royal 41mm
Everything You Need to Know About Tudor Military Watches
How to Sell a Tudor Watch
Rolex/Tudor Revenue Expectations for 2024 and Beyond
Rolex revenue in 2023 followed a predictable upward trajectory, and 2024 will likely be no different. But Tudor’s numbers are a bit tougher to predict. Tudor sales will probably continue to ebb and flow based on how popular their releases are in a given year. If they have a hit at Watches & Wonders 2024, their numbers will probably go up, and if they don’t, they likely won’t.
Although Rolex’s biggest upcoming factory won’t be online until 2029, some new temporary facilities should be up and running by 2025, and it will be really interesting to see what Rolex’s numbers look like then. But for 2024, we can probably expect something close to the status quo.
More on Rolex:
Best Rolex Explorer II Alternatives
Rolex Price Increase 2024: Only in Some Countries
France Fines Rolex €91,600,000 for Prohibiting Online Sales
What is a Rolex Root Beer?
Can You Get a Rolex Under $1,000?