The Secondary Watch Market “Crash” of 2022

As watch prices exploded from roughly 2018-2021, watches became a traded commodity, with prices of various models fluctuating like stocks on the stock market. This newfound passion for watches resulted in millions of monthly views, and it also captured the attention of mainstream media and the likes of hedge funds like Morgan Stanley–who now closely monitors the Swiss watch industry. Given that early 2022 (or arguably late 2021) was the peak of watch prices, this article will look back at the watch market crash (or more accurately, “cooldown”) of mid-to-late-2022.

It can be hard to accurately know what is the true market value of a watch and how the prices of watches have evolved over time. While resources like Chrono24 or Watch Charts are helpful guides, these sites simply aggregate online listings of models. So while the true market price for a Patek Philippe Nautilus 5980/1R may be $175,000, a dealer or multiple dealers may be listing it for $230,000 and completely skewing the advertised market price calculated by online listing aggregators. 

Why Watch Price Lists from Aggregators Do Not Reflect Actual Market Pricing

This happens for a number of reasons. Firstly, be it watch dealers or private individuals, people want to sell their watches for the highest possible price which makes total sense. Secondly, some listings are simply old and outdated.

Watches may sit in a watch dealer’s inventory or a private individual’s collection and be listed online for sale at prices that no longer reflect their true market value. Take the example above of the Patek Philippe Nautilus 5980/1R. While the market price today is around the $175,000 mark for a good example, back in March of 2022 it was almost twice that. Now was the watch really selling at this price? Actually, yes it was–I personally sold one for that price at the very peak of the hype.

Another thing to keep in mind is that an individual or dealer may post a listing for a watch and not even have one in stock! They’ll simply access their own wholesale network of dealers and work to find it for you. Posts like that tend to have rather aspirational prices, which can also skew the aggregated price.

Is there a Luxury Watch Market Crash or Just a Correction?

The truth is the watch market – like the markets for many other assets – did experience a significant correction. But even the most “hyped” pieces seem to have lost half their value at most. Granted, in any given year, a watch just like a stock can be subject to price fluctuations. But let’s take a look at the exceptional market growth leading up to the peak.

To show this, we will be going over popular models from four of the biggest and most popular watch brands in the world – Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet and Richard Mille – and sharing with all of you their price trends over time based on actual sales we as employees of Luxury Bazaar have sold these watches for. Across the board, aside from the green Daytona, as of 2024 these watches would sell for about 25% less than the 2022 peak prices we’ll show you here:

Crash or Correction: the Series

The first installment of our series is a deep dive into the biggest price adjustments of Patek Philippe.
Patek Philippe Watches Prices: Historical and Current From Actual Sales Numbers

The second installment of our series is looking into the actual price adjustments of Audemars Piguet Audemars Piguet Watch Prices: Historical and Current From Actual Sales Numbers

The third installment of the series goes into the most heralded brand, Rolex
Rolex Watch Prices: Historical and Current From Actual Sales Numbers

The fourth and final installment of the series goes into the newest yet “hottest” brand, Richard Mille.
Richard Mille Prices: Historical and Current From Actual Sales Numbers

Note: As always, here at Luxury Bazaar we would always caution you against the notion of investing in watches and instead opt to buy what you like. In the long run, whether your watch goes up or down in value will be irrelevant because you will actually get to enjoy your watches and wear what you like without worrying about their future value.